Coronavirus

Spain is rapidly catching up to Italy in terms of both COVID-19 confirmed case and death counts.   It has already claimed the top spot as the hottest country in the world with 0.20% of its population infected vs Switzerland at 0.19% and Italy at 0.17%.   What is surprising is that Spain did not learn anything from the Italian example and try to avoid the same tragic fate.   Both countries encountered their first confirmed cases on the same day on Jan 31 st . Both had several weeks to prepare before the virus took off on its exponential growth but neither was prepared to roll out test kits quickly and widely.   The Italians were about 10 days ahead in experiencing exponential growth of the virus. For example, Italy counted 650 cases on Feb 27 th , a level above that which led China to quarantine Wuhan, 10 days before Spain crossed a similar threshold on March 8 th .   Both countries began to institute some travel restrictions then but neither as strong as tho...

The recent debate between Governor Cuomo and President Trump about if, when, and who can or should declare a quarantine around metro-NYC is reminiscent of the debate between Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio about who should impose travel restrictions around NYC.  That 3-day delay will have cost thousands of American lives when the COVID-19 pandemic scorecard is finally tallied.  This most recent debate threatens to exact an even greater tribute from the American citizens that these officials all swore to protect. The epidemic in metro-NYC is out of control and lags the critical timeline that China and South Korea followed.  It's been 16 days since NY crossed the threshold of 500 deaths on March 14 th  that caused China to impose Draconian quarantines on Wuhan city and then Hubei province.  Without strict quarantines, the incremental travel restrictions and social distancing recommendations have helped a little but it was not until Cuomo announced statewide she...

Testing early, quickly, accurately, and thoroughly is important in the war against COVID-19.  Not only does it allow us to identify those who have been infected early in their infection, it allows us to track all their contacts more thoroughly, it allows us to treat them more effectively, and it also allows us to restrict their travel and isolate them before they have a chance to infect others (the 4T program to fight epidemics).  All 4 steps are necessary to allow a country to effectively control its epidemic at minimum cost to society.  Countries that have effectively adopted this program such as South Korea and Singapore have been able to control their epidemic without resorting to Draconian measures such as those employed by China who quarantined entire cities and provinces because they didn’t know the full dimensions of their problem.   On this score, the US has done very  poorly – starting slowly, with numerous setbacks and a far too restricti...

Florida Governor DeSantis has failed to recognize the seriousness of the exploding Covid-19 Pandemic in Florida.   His slow response and poor judgment have already cost many Floridians their lives and may cost many thousands more if he fails to act now.   State Infections/M Infections Deaths Mortality Mortality Coincident Lagged5 NY            2,361 45934 604 1.3% 3.6% NJ               994 8825 108 1.2% 5.1% LA               591 2746 119 4.3% 12.7% WA               486 3700 175 4.7% 8.8% MA        ...