End of the COVID-19 Nightmare in the USA?
Covid-19 daily cases started rising again about 4 weeks ago signaling the beginning of a fourth wave in the USA. However, over the last week cases have resumed declining cutting short the fourth wave. Is this a real indication of light at the end of the tunnel or are we just seeing the headlight of the oncoming train? 42.2% of the USA has been vaccinated with at least one shot to date (green part of the graph below). This seems to be too low to meet the 70%+ threshold that is generally believed to be the vaccination level needed for herd immunity. However, we have always asserted that while rigorous herd immunity with vaccines is the most desirable goal, effective human immunity may be reached earlier and allow the USA to flatten the COVID-19 infection curve. Effective human immunity is a combination of natural immunity gained through infection by the SARS-COV-2 virus, vaccine immunity, and behavior immunity due to citizens rigorously practicing maski...