Coronavirus

COVID-19 cases in the USA have shown a sharp decrease over the last 8 days causing the 7-day rolling average to peak and rollover (see figure below – red squares).   The question is whether this is measuring a real lasting phenomenon – perhaps attributable to local COVID-19 fires burning out, or to mitigation factors taking hold, or to some temporary factor associated with the Thanksgiving holiday.   The answer is probably a combination of all three that will ultimately be overwhelmed by an increase in Thanksgiving transmission. Some COVID-19 outbreaks have burned so strongly and for so long (3-4 months) that local “herd immunity” may be acting as a retardant to the fire.   For example, in North Dakota (ND) 10.3% of the population has now been confirmed infected (see table below).   State Confirmed Testing Est. Pop Deaths Death per Fatality   Infection % Positive % ...

Amidst the bad news of COVID-19 increasing in the USA for the third time to record levels, there is some evidence that the case fatality rate (CFR = deaths/cases) has improved significantly from spring to summer.  Two large studies of patients in NYC and in England both show significant improvement in survival rates.  We have done a study of cases in Florida and find a similar trend in improvement.  The figure above shows that cases (brown squares) in Florida first increased in March and then eased in June, only to surge again and burn out by early October.   Since then cases have risen again for the third time and deaths (blue diamonds) appear to have bottomed out and are increasing again.   During the first wave, the first 82,719 cases reported in FL on 6/17/20 were responsible for most of the 3702 cumulative deaths reported on 7/4/20.   This corresponded to an overall CFR of 4.5% (with deaths lagging cases by 2-3 weeks.   The second wave ended rou...

The total number of COVID-19 cases in the USA surpassed ten million or 3% of the population today.   The third wave of the Pandemic in the USA is here and it looks extremely dangerous.   For the first time, the number of confirmed cases per week has reached 700,000 or more than 100,000 per day – 50% higher than the peak of the summer wave reached in July (see brown squares in the figure below).   Cases are rising everywhere this time around in contrast to the first wave which was concentrated in the Northeast and the second wave that was concentrated in the Sunbelt.   This third wave differs significantly from the first and modestly from the second in other ways.   Testing now is much more thorough than the first wave and slightly better than the second wave thus identifying more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases than before (see figure below).   More kids and young adults are being tested now increasing the percentage of silent carriers.  ...

COVID-19 cases are increasing around the world, in the USA, and in Florida.   In Florida, cases have been rising for the last 5 weeks albeit at a slower rate than many northern states as temperatures have cooled and activities have moved indoors slowly in the Sunshine State.   In Florida, the push to reopen the economy and especially schools have exacerbated the problem.   Since schools have reopened in August it is clear that kids can get infected and high school kids are as likely to get infected as the general population (see graph below).   College kids and young adults are nearly twice as likely to get infected since they are more mobile and are less risk-averse in general.   While younger kids appear to be less contagious than older kids, their infection rates have been going up with the general population and for kids of elementary school age (5 - 10) it is now about 45% that of the average population.   Even though kids (<18 yrs old) are unlike...

The US government's response to the novel coronavirus has been poor from day one.  And now Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff says the federal government has given up trying to control the Pandemic .  This admission of defeat is highly irresponsible and borders on the criminal.  Governments are elected to serve and protect the people and when they fail to do their number one job, they should be voted out.   The President and his national security advisors knew in early January, and the President  understood the seriousness of the novel coronavirus by late January – way before the public or other government officials knew.  (1)   Even if he did not want to panic the public, he should have convened a meeting of federal officials, governors, and top local officials secretly and warned them about the coming crisis.   A Manhattan Project for the Pandemic should have been set up in January to help the USA deal with this crisis.  ...

Last month we were concerned that the leveling off of new daily cases in Florida and the USA was only temporary.  Over the last four weeks of steadily increasing daily case counts (see red squares in the figure below), we are increasingly concerned that we are seeing the beginnings of the third wave as temperatures cool and indoor activities resume in northern USA (Wisconsin is especially bad now).  We are also concerned that the pressures to reopen schools for in-person learning, reopen the economy before Election Day, and the increasing numbers of maskless, crowded rallies are exacerbating the normal seasonal rise in cases.  Some of the increasing cases could be due to improved testing.   After stalling for 2 months testing has improved as schools and businesses reopen and want to keep ahead of increased infections by increasing testing.   This has again picked up an increasing number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases.   If this were the onl...

President Trump announced that he tested positive for COVDI-19 on October 1 st .   Since then at least seven other attendees of a Rose Garden ceremony for Amy Barrett on September 26 th have tested positive for the virus.   We wish them all speedy and full recoveries.   However, the prognosis for each of them varies widely depending on their age, gender, and general health.   The exponential age and gender behavior of COVID-19 patients has remained roughly the same since we first published our version of the graphic below 6 months ago .   Improved testing and identification of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases mostly among younger adults have improved the overall case fatality rate (CFR = deaths/cases), but have not changed the strong exponential age dependence.   Better healthcare treatments in terms of logistics (avoiding bed, equipment, and supply shortages that plagued Italy early on) and the introduction of newer therapeutics such as Remdesi...